State Agencies Release 2025 Resource Adequacy Study
Illinois’ 2025 Resource Adequacy Study, released on December 15, includes an assessment of energy reliability needs in the northern Illinois’ PJM region, central and southern Illinois’ MISO region, and across the entire state from 2026 through 2045. Jointly produced by the Illinois Power Agency (IPA), Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC), and Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA), the report is intended to inform the state’s response to future resource adequacy needs, with projections likely to evolve as load and the generation mix change.
The study finds that both PJM and MISO are presently resource adequate, meeting the industry standard of a one-day-in-ten-years loss-of-load expectation. However, margins in both regions are expected to tighten due to rising demand, mandated retirements of coal and natural gas plants under the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA), and the risk that renewable and storage additions may not fully replace retiring capacity or keep pace with load growth.
In PJM, the ComEd zone is projected to meet PJM’s minimum in-zone generation requirement through 2032. Around 2030, however, the zone is expected to rely more heavily on imports from other PJM states to meet peak demand. Projected load growth, driven in part by data center development, is estimated to increase PJM’s resource adequacy target by approximately 24% above current levels by 2030. In MISO, the Ameren Illinois portion of the footprint is expected to meet its local resource requirement through 2035. MISO as a whole, however, faces potential shortfalls beginning in 2031, meaning Illinois could be affected even if its own zone appears sufficient.
The study emphasizes that shortfall risks are not predetermined. Projections assume no acceleration or delay in new builds or retirements, and outcomes will depend on how quickly new resources—renewables, battery storage, or other generation—come online. The findings have sparked debate about the path forward. Environmental stakeholders are likely to continue pushing to accelerate clean energy deployment, including solar, wind, and storage; in the fall veto session, the General Assembly passed SB 25, which, among other provisions, requires the IPA to procure 3GW of battery energy storage by the end of 2030. Business-oriented interests emphasize ensuring reliability during the transition, including potentially delaying some retirements or enabling new natural gas construction as a bridge until sufficient clean capacity is online. Any solution must account for broader PJM and MISO regional dynamics that extend beyond Illinois.
Governor Pritzker Signs Transit Legislation
On Tuesday, Governor JB Pritzker signed SB 2111, a sweeping transit reform law that reshapes how public transportation is governed and funded in Illinois. The law establishes the Northern Illinois Transit Authority (NITA) to replace the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) and oversee the Chicago region’s transit providers, CTA, Metra, and Pace. It also creates a new coordinating committee to improve how agencies collaborate across both the Chicago region and downstate.
The package provides approximately $1.5B in new annual funding to avert service cuts, support systemwide upgrades, and expand offerings. Revenue will be generated by redirecting a portion of the motor fuel sales tax to transit, dedicating interest from the Road Fund to transit capital, authorizing a 0.25% RTA sales tax increase, and increasing tolls by $0.45 for passenger vehicles and by 30% for commercial trucks. The bill passed both chambers of the General Assembly at the end of October. With the Governor’s signature, Illinois transit agencies now have a more stable financial foundation and a new governing framework aimed at improving service statewide.
Important Upcoming Dates – Statewide
February 6 – Bill Introduction Deadline
February 18 – Governor’s State of the State and Budget Address
March 13 – Initial Chamber Committee Deadline (Senate)
March 27 – Initial Chamber Committee Deadline (House)
April 17 – Initial Chamber Third Reading Deadline
May 8 – Opposite Chamber Committee Deadline
May 22 – Opposite Chamber Third Reading Deadline
May 31 – Adjournment
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