Through the first two months of FY 2025, Illinois revenues are up about 6% over FY 2024, but the pace of economic growth appears to be slowing. Both sales tax and corporate income tax revenues remain below their FY 2024 figures at this point in the fiscal year. Year-over-year growth is largely being driven by personal income tax, federal funds, and interest income on state funds and investments.
In August, the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs’ Illinois Flash Index declined to 102, representing the fourth consecutive declining month. The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois’ growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income as estimated from receipts for corporate income, individual income, and retail sales taxes. These revenues are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is calculated for the 12-month period using data through August 31, 2024.
Any figure over 100 in the Index represents economic growth, but the state is down from a recent high of around 106 in 2021 and 2022. The state hovered around 103 throughout most of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, before beginning the current declining trend around May 2024. Unemployment, which rose from 4.1% last August to 5.3% this August is the largest factor leading to the declining Flash Index figure. However, unemployment growth largely mirrors national trends, and should not be cause for concern at this time. Slowing corporate and sales tax revenues are also contributing factors to the recent decline in Flash Index’ performance.
In related news, S&P reaffirmed their A- rating, with a stable outlook, of Illinois’ October 2024 General Obligation bonds. They last updated their GO bond rating in February 2023, the seventh of nine credit rating upgrades Illinois has received under Gov. J.B. Pritzker. S&P noted that Illinois unfunded pension liabilities and smaller Budget Stabilization Fund, relative to other states are factors holding the state back from future credit rating upgrades.
The Budget Stabilization Fund has a balance of $2.18B, but it would need to have over $3B in order to hold over one month’s worth of reserves, a benchmark that most other states can match. S&P believes that the state’s revenues are not currently growing fast enough to meaningfully increase its Budget Stabilization Fund balance within the two-year outlook period. Without significant unexpected revenue growth, Illinois will only add $73.3M to the fund in FY 2025, coming from standard transfers from the Unemployment Insurance Loan repayment ($45M), recreational cannabis sales ($4.25M), monthly GRF transfers ($7.5M), and interest earnings (estimated $16.58M).
According to the most recent Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability data from the end of FY 2023, the state’s pension funds are 44.9% funded with total unfunded liabilities of $141.4B (actuarial basis). Both of those figures are among the worst of all states, and without significant unexpected revenue growth, S&P also does not expect the pension situation to improve meaningfully enough to warrant a rating upgrade with the outlook period.
Despite the S&P outlook, Illinois’ economy is still growing. The state has made significant progress to build up its Budget Stabilization Fund balance from nothing to over $2B and contributed above the minimum statutory requirement to pensions under Gov. Pritzker.
Important Upcoming Dates – Statewide
November 5 – 2024 General Election
November 12-14 – Veto Session Week 1
November 19-21 – Veto Session Week 2
In the News
Chicago should mull all fixes for budget crisis, Pritzker says – Crain’s Chicago Business, September 19, 2024
As Chicago faces a nearly $1 billion deficit next year, the city needs to bring every possible solution forward to figure out how to address the budget crisis, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker said on Wednesday.
Teamsters members in Illinois, Indiana throw support behind Harris: report – Crain’s Chicago Business, September 19, 2024
A group of local Teamsters affiliates are throwing their support behind Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris despite a decision by the larger organization not to endorse either candidate for the White House.
Eye On Illinois: All voters would benefit from more quality candidates on general election ballot – Shaw Local News Network, September 19, 2024
Numbers tell a story, but rarely without help. Speaking at Southern Illinois University’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute, House Minority Leader Tony McCombie, R-Savanna, noted that in the 2022 general election, Republicans got more votes in House races than Democrats but won only 40 of 118 seats.
19th Senate candidates say lowering property taxes a key issue among voters – Chicago Tribune, September 19, 2024
Both candidates seeking to represent the 19th District in the Illinois Senate say high property taxes are a top concern of voters in a district that takes in several south and southwest suburban communities. Michael Hastings, 43, D-Frankfort, first began serving in the Senate in 2013 and is facing Samantha Jean Gasca, 37, of New Lenox in the November election.
Underwood, Marter have vastly different views on abortion in 14th House District race – Daily Herald, September 17, 2024
Democratic U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood and Republican challenger James Marter are on opposite sides of virtually every high-profile political issue — but they may be furthest apart on abortion.
O’Donnell: Time to end the Illinois Sports Facility Authority – Daily Herald, September 18, 2024
THE 2024 CHICAGO WHITE SOX are very public poltroons as they limp toward a final out far beyond mere ridicule and scorn. If only they were intended to be a floating comedy troupe — something along the lines of the yellow-hot Savannah Bananas. Then their historic baseball ineptitude would be expected, if not downright applauded.
Illinois Sells $1.09 Billion in General Obligation Bonds – Morningstar, September 17, 2024
The state of Illinois has sold $1.09 billion in general obligation bonds. Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund outstanding general obligation bonds, according to documents posted on MuniOS on Monday. Some proceeds will be deposited into an escrow account to buy U.S. Treasury obligations.
News in briefs: Welch previews veto session; Duckworth’s IVF bill fails – The Daily Line, September 18, 2024
House Speaker Chris Welch (D-Hillside) discussed veto session at a City Club of Chicago luncheon on Tuesday. And Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s bill in the U.S. Senate to protect access to in vitro fertilization was blocked by Senate Republicans for the second time.
Jurors begin deliberations in trial of former AT&T chief accused of bribing Michael Madigan – Chicago Sun-Times, September 17, 2024
The former head of AT&T Illinois bribed then-state House Speaker Michael J. Madigan to land the “white whale” that the utility and its top executive “had desperately wanted for the better part of a decade,” a federal prosecutor told jurors Tuesday. But a defense attorney for former AT&T Illinois President Paul La Schiazza insisted, “This was no bribe.”
Illinois GOP Chair Calls for End to ‘Dangerous Rhetoric’ After Apparent Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump – WTTW, September 16, 2024
After a second failed attempt by a shooter to assassinate Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump, Illinois Republicans called for an end to “escalating, dangerous rhetoric,” even as Trump in a social media post Monday continued his regular attacks on his political adversaries.
Illinois lawmakers condemn violence after second Trump assassination attempt – The Center Square, September 16, 2024
After a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, Illinois lawmakers are condemning political violence and inflammatory rhetoric. In a statement U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth said, “I am relieved former President Trump is safe after reports of gunfire at his property. I, along with all patriotic Americans, condemn all acts of political violence no matter the political positions of those targeted. There are not good people on both sides of political violence.”
Both sides rest after jury sees emails from Speaker Madigan’s son in bribery trial of ex-AT&T boss – Chicago Tribune, September 16, 2024
When AT&T Illinois boss Paul La Schiazza received an email from the son of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan asking for a charitable contribution in 2017, he forwarded it immediately to a member of his government relations team with a note that reads almost like a weary sigh.
GOP’s Tony: If Dems can’t get it right, we will – Capitol City Now, September 16, 2024
A top Republican in Springfield is optimistic of gaining ground on supermajority Democrats this election year. Even though Democrats hold 78 of 118 seats in the House, Minority Leader Tony McCombie (pictured, pink jacket) (R-Savanna) says voters who put them there are dissatisfied.
2024 Illinois State Fair breaks attendance records – News Channel 20, September 16, 2024
Governor JB Pritzker announced record-breaking attendance totals for the 2024 Illinois State Fair. More than 773,000 people attended the 11-day event, the highest number on record since industry standards were enacted. The 2024 state fair attendance figure exceeded 2023 by nearly 66,000.
Gov Pritzker Names James Jennings As Director of IEPA – Vandalia Radio, September 16, 2024
Governor Pritzker is appointing James Jennings as the next director of the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Jennings began serving as Interim Director in July after the former director resigned. He began at the IEPA in 2013. His appointment is pending Senate approval.
In bribery trial, AT&T lobbyists detail contentious meeting with Madigan ally – Capitol News Illinois, September 13, 2024
On an afternoon in late April 2017, recently retired state Rep. Eddie Acevedo was called to a meeting in the state Capitol in Springfield. The 20-year veteran lawmaker had joined his sons’ lobbying firm and was looking for work. Meeting with a trio of lobbyists for telecommunications giant AT&T Illinois was a major step forward in Acevedo’s new lobbying career.
Is Mayor Johnson preparing to go to war with Gov. Pritzker and General Assembly? – Chicago Sun-Times, September 13, 2024
It’s been an open secret for weeks that at least some members of Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s Intergovernmental Affairs staff would be leaving after the Democratic National Convention, including its director, Sydney Holman.
Dems Working Group Chair: Reform Transit Before New Revenue – The Illinoize, September 15, 2024
If there’s an expectation of what issue may dominate the spring legislative session in 2025, many believe it will be a pending fiscal cliff for Chicago-area mass transit agencies. House Speaker Chris Welch launched another of their partisan-only working groups to address the crisis, a group co-chaired by Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago) and Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado (D-Chicago).
A Mass Transit Bailout? – The Illinoize, September 13, 2024
As Democrats begin private discussions to bail out Chicago-area mass transit in 2025, Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado (D-Chicago), the co-chair of a House Democrat working group, discusses how Democrats will address the issue. We’re also joined by Ray Long of the Chicago Tribune, who is co-authoring a series on corruption. We also discuss the trial of former AT&T Executive Paul La Schiazza and the upcoming trial of former Speaker Michael Madigan.
Civilian police oversight president worried about life after ShotSpotter – Chicago Sun-Times, September 19, 2024
No matter who wins the high-stakes battle over the future of Chicago’s gunshot detection technology, the political and legal battle will not be decided before ShotSpotter is turned off at midnight Sunday.
Amazon closing Goose Island fulfillment center, one of the first it opened in Chicago – Crain’s Chicago Business, September 19, 2024
Amazon is closing its fulfillment center in Goose Island, nearly 10 years after it opened as part of the e-commerce titan’s expansion efforts in Illinois. The company says it will not renew its lease at 1111 N. Cherry Ave. According to a WARN notice filed with the state, 211 employees are set to receive layoff notices effective Nov. 13.
Mexicans Are the Fastest-Growing Ethnic Group in Chicago — and Underrepresented – Chicago Magazine, Just in time for Mexican Independence Day, there’s a new study on Chicago’s Mexican community. “Fuerza Mexicana: The Past, Present, and Power of Mexicans in Chicagoland” was conducted by the University of Illinois-Chicago’s Great Cities Institute, on behalf of Latinos Progresando and several other Mexican-American organizations.
Mayor says he plans to veto ‘illegal’ ordinance that empowers superintendent to renew ShotSpotter contract – The Daily Line, September 19, 2024
The mayor said he plans to veto the City Council’s latest attempt to retain the acoustic gunshot detection technology ShotSpotter — an ordinance approved Wednesday. “Clearly, the legal dynamic of this ordinance has left me of no choice but to veto it,” Mayor Brandon Johnson said during a news conference after the vote. “But I am committed to making sure that we are coming up with a collaborative approach to find systems that will actually work.”
Ethics ordinance banning lobbyists from giving to mayoral campaign accounts approved by council – The Daily Line, September 19, 2024
The City Council on Wednesday finally approved an ordinance that codifies an existing ban on lobbyists donating to the campaign accounts of sitting mayors, thus giving the Chicago ethics board enforcement power over the ban. The measure, sponsored by ethics chair Ald. Matt Martin (47), also extends the prohibition to all mayoral candidates.
Council approves data center ordinance, appointment of Burnett as zoning chair, anti-gentrification ordinance – The Daily Line, September 19, 2024
The City Council on Wednesday approved a replacement zoning committee chair, an ordinance to incentivize the construction of data centers in the city and the appointment of a new chief procurement officer. The council also gave final approval to an anti-gentrification ordinance for the Northwest Side and a controversial appointment to the civilian police oversight commission.
Clerk Iris Martinez says most defendants are ditching court — but critics don’t trust her numbers – Chicago Sun-Times, September 18, 2024
Ahead of the first anniversary of the end of cash bail in Illinois, Cook County’s clerk of court released a statistic that mystified other stakeholders in the county justice system: She warned that three out of four unconfined defendants have failed to show up for court dates over the past year.
Chicago-Area Transit Agencies Won’t Be Getting More Financial Help Any Time Soon, Illinois House Speaker Says – WTTW, September 17, 2024
Chicago-area transit agencies seeking a state funding boost will have to make like many frustrated CTA passengers — and wait. Metra, Pace and the Chicago Transit Authority collectively expect to be $730 million short come 2026 and are seeking a lift from state government. Speaking at a City Club event Tuesday, Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch said any financial assistance is likely at least eight months from resolution.
Controversial appointment of 48th Ward staffer to civilian police oversight commission approved by police and fire committee – The Daily Line, September 18, 2024
A staffer for 48th Ward Ald. Leni Manaa-Hoppenworth is one step closer to becoming a board member of the Community Commission for Public Safety and Accountability (CCPSA) after his nomination was stalled twice over four months over concerns the dual role would be a conflict of interest.
Booth and Kellogg business schools near top of new ranking – Crain’s Chicago Business, September 18, 2024
The University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management finished at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in this year’s Bloomberg Businessweek Best Business School rankings of the best full-time MBA programs in the country.
Rules committee approves appointment of Burnett as zoning chair, votes down referendum to create larger civilian police oversight commission with expanded powers – The Daily Line, September 17, 2024
The City Council’s Committee on Committees and Rules on Monday approved the appointment of a new zoning committee chair. If approved Wednesday by the City Council, it would end a more than 10-month vacancy.
Finance committee approves millions in police misconduct settlements, TIF funding for housing developments and Kells Park project, delays vote on Pilsen TIF expansion – The Daily Line, September 17, 2024
The City Council Committee on Finance on Monday approved millions of dollars in tax-increment financing (TIF) and other financial assistance for housing developments and a park project and millions of dollars to settle lawsuits involving alleged police misconduct. But the committee delayed a vote on a controversial expansion of the TIF district in Pilsen.
Residents say city road closures for Mexican Independence Day celebrations too restrictive – Chicago Tribune, September 15, 2024
Despite Chicago city officials’ efforts to reduce Mexican Independence Day car caravans this year, the annual festivities prompted the city to implement sudden road closures downtown Saturday evening. Many residents spent hours trying to get home. “(It was) an epic failure like I have never seen in this city. Not Nascar, (n)ot Lollapalooza, (n)ot anything compared to how poorly this was handled,” Aaron Thompson, a 46-year-old River North resident, wrote to Ald. Brendan Reilly, 42nd, Sunday morning.
Chicago Budget Director on Anticipated Shortfall, Hiring Freeze and City Services – WTTW, September 16, 2024
Chicago is facing a $223 million budget gap this year, and the city is projecting a nearly $1 billion shortfall in the 2025 fiscal year. City officials have issued a hiring freeze, as well as limits to travel and some overtime in an effort to right the fiscal ship — but there are still gaps that need to be filled.
Housing committee holds hearing on property tax relief proposal that Board of Review commissioner says would ‘restore fairness and stability’ to struggling households – The Daily Line, September 13, 2024
The City Council’s housing committee on Wednesday held a hearing on a proposal to rein in property tax bills for homeowners that are seeing taxes increase beyond what they can pay. Cook County Board of Review Comm. George Cardenas (D-1) presented his proposal for a property tax bill “circuit breaker” program that would link tax bills to a household’s ability to pay and provide state credits to cover the portion of taxes that exceed a certain threshold based on the household’s income.
Finance committee to consider wrongful murder conviction settlement, Pilsen TIF District expansion and TIF funding for myriad housing projects – The Daily Line, September 16, 2024
The City Council finance committee on Monday will consider an $11.6 million legal settlement, an expansion of the tax increment financing (TIF) district in Pilsen and millions in TIF dollars to various projects citywide. The Committee on Finance will meet at 10 a.m. in council chambers.
Editorial: When government has to subsidize people’s property taxes, something is badly wrong – Chicago Tribune, September 13, 2024
How do you know property taxes are too high in this state? Most homeowners if asked that question would laugh at the notion that there was any doubt. But there hardly could be starker evidence than that local politicians, led by Cook County Assessor Fritz Kaegi, are proposing to have taxpayers cough up more money — potentially lots of it — to help lower-income households cover their property tax bills.
City Closes Gold Coast Homeless Shelter Used To House Tent City Residents During DNC – Block Club Chicago, September 16, 2024
The city closed a Gold Coast homeless shelter Sunday that housed people cleared from tent cities during the Democratic National Convention. The shelter, in the former Tremont Hotel at 100 E. Chestnut St., was opened initially to house people last winter and recently provided housing to dozens of people who were moved from tent encampments during preparations for the DNC.
